Both ESPN and the rest of the TV industry “know there are people who might stop getting cable TV once they can just get ESPN” on the company’s DTC streaming service, according to Peter Kafka of BUSINESS INSIDER. Disney has to “maintain in public that it’s really interested” in targeting consumers who “don’t pay for cable TV,” but “love sports.” But the new service, which will cost $30 per month, “could help speed up the erosion of the cable TV industry.” That explains why this launch announcement is taking place in 2025, even though “there’s been intense speculation for a decade about a streaming-only version of ESPN.” That’s because Disney, along with other TV network operators, has “spent years trying to keep a foot in each canoe: offering some of its best programming on digital-only services like Disney+ and ESPN+, while keeping other core offerings on its traditional networks, like ABC and ESPN.” The question remains whether consumers are willing to pay $30 per month for a service that has a lot of sports, but not all of the sports. Kafka: “On the one hand, the future we were thinking about 10 years ago is finally here: You are going to have lots of ways to pay for sports without having to sign up for a cable TV bundle. On the other hand: Now that we’ve got it, we have no idea how many people are going to want it” (BUSINESS INSIDER, 5/13).
EVALUATING SUCCESS: LIGHTSHED PARTNERS analysts Greenfield, Ross & Kelley write that the “best way to judge” ESPN’s DTC effort is not by subscribers at the end of 2025 or 2026, but “rather how many consumers are using the ESPN app in a year to watch ESPN and how much time spent occurs on the ESPN app relative to the ESPN linear network on MVPDs/vMVPDs.” If ESPN can drive a “meaningful portion of its multichannel universe viewers to regularly watch” via the app, it will be a “big win for Disney.” If not, the DTC launch will be a “relatively minor event that helps offset the continued decline in multichannel video universe subscribers.” Having a direct relationship with viewers will allow ESPN to “understand what viewers watch, target advertising in a far more compelling way and try to engage viewers beyond live games” (LIGHTSHED PARTNERS, 5/14).
