SBJ Media: What to expect from Fox’s ALCS Game 7

If you had given Fox execs an ALCS choice before the season -- a four-game Red Sox-Yankees sweep or a seven-game Rangers-Astros series -- every single one of them would have opted for a Game 7 (the choice of a five-game Red Sox-Yankees series would be a much closer decision).

Tonight’s Rangers-Astros finale represents found money for Fox, since networks never budget for a seven-game series. Fox sets its MLB postseason series budgets for five-and-a-half games. A five-game series falls just short of budget; a six-game series beats budget. A seventh game represents found money.

Expect the series’ biggest audience to tune into tonight’s game -- probably coming in at around 9 million viewers. Typically, Game 7 viewership is about 60-70% better than the previous six games, but that’s become harder to project these days because of the mix between broadcast and cable. If the Vikings-49ers “Monday Night Football” game stays close, that could have a negative effect on MLB viewership.

Fox would benefit from having the Phillies get into the World Series thanks to a combination of a bigger TV market (compared to Phoenix) and a boisterous, TV-friendly crowd at Citizens Bank Park in Philly.

As for the AL, it’s unlikely that the network is pulling for either team. Despite having been part of the ALCS for seven straight seasons, the Astros still have not developed a national following, at least as far as TV viewership is concerned, according to several media sources.

Here's a stat to consider as you watch tonight, courtesy of The Athletic's Jayson Stark: Tonight marks only the third day in the last 30 years with both a Game 6 and a Game 7 (not counting 2020).

The top five markets remained unchanged in Nielsen’s latest local TV market rankings: N.Y., L.A., Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas-Ft. Worth, and there are some notable changes elsewhere on the list.

Houston passed Atlanta for No. 6, and Boston jumped one spot to No. 8, passing D.C. The Bay Area (San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose) stayed in the No. 10 spot. D.C. and the Bay Area are the only top 10 markets to post declines in TV homes vs. 2022-23.

Why is a New York market team considered so valuable for national broadcasters? The market makes up 6.1% of all U.S. TV homes, compared to just 4.7% for L.A. and 2.9% for Chicago.

Among the major league sports markets making moves is Salt Lake City, which jumped up two spots to No. 27, passing a pair of AFC North markets in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Memphis also moved up two spots to No. 50, passing New Orleans. Tampa-St. Pete moved ahead of Seattle-Tacoma (Nos. 12 and 13 now, respectively), Orlando-Daytona passed Denver (Nos. 16 and 17 now, respectively), and Raleigh-Durham passed Portland (Nos. 22 and 23 now, respectively).

Looking across the big leagues (NFL, MLS, NBA, NHL):

• Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto is the largest one-team media market (No. 20).

• Buffalo remains the smallest major league market at No. 54 overall (no, Green Bay doesn’t count here since the Packers are measured by the Milwaukee market).

• The largest “minor league market” is Hartford-New Haven (No. 32), and it leapfrogged two pro markets in Columbus and Kansas City this year.

• If MLB expanded to North Carolina, would it be better off in Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham? The Queen City is just one spot ahead of the Research Triangle, and now has only 2% more TV homes.

• The market with the most growth? Bowling Green, Ky., which was up 11% (the only market with double-digit percentage growth in TV homes).

• Memphis, Houston, Orlando-Daytona and Tampa-St. Pete had the biggest percentage gains among pro markets (each up 4%).

• The Bay Area had the biggest drop among major league markets, down 3%.

My main takeaway from last week’s release of ESPN’s financials -- for the first time-- is that the business still is healthy. How else would you describe a business that generated $16 billion in revenue and $2.9 billion in operating profit for FY 2022?

In a report that came out last week, MoffettNathanson’s Michael Nathanson suggested that ESPN’s decision to walk away from some media rights deals helped the overall numbers.

Nathanson: “Maybe a more telling datapoint is ESPN Linear Networks (including International and Star India sports networks) EBIT actually grew +6% in FY 2022 to $3.3 billion. We see this as evidence that perhaps passing on some of the prior sports rights has helped ESPN remain more stable and even grow more than we expected. As a reminder, the list of sports rights they have either pared down or dropped entirely include [the] Big Ten, Pac-12, MLS, [UEFA] Champions League and a smaller MLB package. In addition, ESPN passed on NFL Sunday Ticket.”

It was interesting to listen to Klutch Sports Group founder and CEO Rich Paul give his perspective of the NBA’s media negotiations during an appearance on Matt Belloni’s podcast.

Paul hit on some common themes -- such as the fragmentation of the league’s audience and the need to drive engagement among younger fans.

My ears perked up when he referenced the deal that Suns owner Mat Ishbia made with Gray Television for the team’s local rights. “I like the different aspect of it, but I can’t overstep in this conversation in terms of what’s best for the business,” Paul said. “I would have to have a deeper conversation with owners to understand it a little bit better.”

During a conference in L.A. that I moderated last week, DirecTV’s top content exec suggested that these local broadcast deals could start to present a problem for pay-TV distributors. “There may be a period of time where we're not paying for those rights until the prospective deal comes up,” DirecTV Chief Content Officer Rob Thun said during the L.A. Sports Innovation Conference. “And unfortunately for broadcasters, the team territories are finite ... so there are going to be white areas of distribution that present a reach problem that broadcast can't fulfill.”

In other words, there are no easy answers to solve problems stemming from RSN struggles.

• Disney and Charter settled their carriage dispute six weeks ago, but the ramifications from that deal will be felt in the pay-TV business for the next several years.

• My boss Abe Madkour in his Forum this week discussed how the importance and long-term value of NASCAR’s new media rights deal was evident at a recent motorsports event. "When asked about the biggest NASCAR story over the next year, [Brad] Keselowski jumped right in and said without a doubt it had to be the TV deal, because it would affect everyone in the sport from owners to drivers to sponsors, even down to the staff at the racetrack."

• Among the projects that Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions is working on is a getting its library of archived content onto a free ad-supported streaming TV channel, reports SBJ's Adam Stern.

• LIV Golf is back in the market for TV rights for its Friday afternoon rounds, which this season have been streamed across a variety of platforms, reports SBJ's Josh Carpenter. LIV's Saturday and Sunday coverage of tournaments are shown on The CW -- a deal that began at the start of 2023 and is for two years with a one-year option.

• The Massachusetts gaming Commission has lots of questions about how the ESPN-Penn National relationship will work, particularly around college sports and on the set of "College GameDay," which now includes Pat McAfee, who likely will figure prominently in the promotion of ESPN Bet, notes my colleague Bill King.

• With its RSN deal a thing of the past, the Jazz's in-house staff, which is soon to expand, will handle local ad sales for games on the team's new local over-the-air home, KJZZ, notes SBJ's Tom Friend. The team still has Playfly to manage national sales, as do all NBA teams other than the Raptors.

• The explosion and prominence of sports content has led to SBJ's first edition of “4SE in Sports Storytelling” honoring those at the intersection of sports and entertainment. Among the outlets profiled are Amazon Prime Video, Apple, Barstool Sports, Box to Box Films, iHeartMedia, Omaha Productions, SMAC Entertainment, Snap, The Ringer and YouTube.