SBJ Media: Ad slowdown? What ad slowdown?

By virtually all accounts, the TV ad sales market is distressed right now as marketers battle against rising inflation and a slumping stock market. But that declining ad sales market has not hit big-time sports yet, with the NFL and college football, in particular, still strong.

Add the upcoming FIFA World Cup to that mix now, as Telemundo reports that this year’s tournament has already surpassed ad sales revenue from 2018 and has exceeded the network’s 2022 revenue goals. NBC-owned Telemundo holds the World Cup’s Spanish-language rights in the U.S. “We’re pacing well ahead of where we were from a national, as well as local ad sales perspective compared to the last World Cup in 2018,” said Mark Marshall, NBCUniversal’s president of ad sales and partnerships. “With just under two weeks to go, NBCUniversal and Telemundo only have a handful of units remaining for this year’s World Cup.”

Telemundo sold presenting sponsorships to Ford for the pregame show, T-Mobile for the halftime show and Coca-Cola for the post-game show. All told, Telemundo has 20 new advertisers, with strength in the auto, retail, QSR/restaurant and technology categories. “With sales this strong, we’re already in conversations for next year’s Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand in 2023,” Marshall said.

NBCU’s Peacock will be a key component to the company’s strategy around the World Cup. Peacock will stream every game, making the event’s first four days available for free. After that, the games will move behind the paywall, but Peacock will keep a 24-hour World Cup channel available for free with commentary, debate and replays.

The Telemundo Deportes app also will carry the games, with the first four days available to unauthenticated users. Starting on Thanksgiving, fans will have to enter their cable credentials to view the games on the app. “All of this will be contemplated with extensive coverage on social and fantasy,” said Romina Rosado, Telemundo Deportes’ EVP/sports content.

All told, Telemundo will produce around 2,000 hours of programming from Qatar, including in-venue commentary for all 64 games.

Quotable: When asked if Telemundo will address some of Qatar’s political issues during the network’s coverage, Telemundo Deportes President Ray Warren said, “By the time the tournament is over, we will have been not ignoring the geopolitical issues that might arise, should that occur.”

Disney reports its earnings after the market closes tomorrow, which should give us a glimpse into the state of the ad sales market. Thanks to ESPN’s college football and NFL-heavy sports schedule, Disney’s ad sales are expected to be among the best in the business, according to a MoffettNathanson report that was released late last month.

Outside of sports and politics, MoffettNathanson expects to see signs of slowing advertising during media earnings calls this quarter.

“We continue to expect a divergence in ad growth across our coverage as Disney and Fox led by a higher focus on sports combined with less international exposure should lead the way,” the report read. “Disney also stands to benefit from the ramping of Disney+ ad tier next year while Fox has the Super Bowl boosting 2023 advertising.”

The World Series rainout, which pushed the schedule back a day, looks like it will drag Fox’s viewership down compared to last year, according SBJ’s ratings guru Austin Karp. We still haven’t seen the numbers for Saturday’s Phillies-Astros Game 6 yet, but a Saturday night baseball game up against strong college football competition does not bode well for the National Pastime.

Following Thursday’s Game 5, Fox had a razor-thin advantage over last year’s Fall Classic. Headed into Saturday’s deciding Game 6, Fox was up just 1% compared to Braves-Astros last year (11.6 million vs. 11.5 million). Saturday’s game aired against three big-time college football games: Alabama-LSU game on ESPN, Clemson-Notre Dame on NBC and Florida State-Miami on ABC. For the World Series to post a viewership increase this season, Game 6 will have to match the 14 million that Braves-Astros drew for Game 6 last year.

The most intriguing World Series matchup for me was for Game 5, which was held against a "Thursday Night Football" game involving teams from the same markets as the World Series. Fox averaged 12.8 million viewer for the baseball game, and Amazon averaged 7.9 million viewers for the football game. Locally, both games were on over-the-air stations, and the World Series won handily over the NFL.

In Philly, the Phillies pulled a 25.9 rating, and the Eagles posted a 8.7 rating. In Houston, the Astros had a 25.5 rating and the Texans had a 1.5 rating.

The Astros-Phillies World Series delivered just over 5.87 billion TV ad impressions on Fox this year, down 7.7% from the six-game Braves-Astros set last year, notes SBJ research guru David Broughton, who combed through data from iSpot.tv.

Samsung Mobile led all brands in ad spend this year at $7.7 million, as the brand splurged on 36 more spots compared the Fall Classic in 2021. Samsung wasn’t in the top 10 last year. That dramatic increase in ad inventory helped Samsung lead in share of TV ad impressions with its “When I Move, You Move” spot, which accounted for just under 2.5% of all World Series impressions.

Coming in at No. 2 among all brands this year was Geico, which was No. 1 in 2021. The insurance brand spent $7.1 million during Astros-Phils on Fox, down from $9.9 million in 2021. Rounding out the top five were T-Mobile (No. 8 in 2021), Indeed (No. 3 in 2021) and Chevrolet (No. 9 in 2021).

NOTE: * = MLB sponsor

• Whether LIV Golf will fall short of a traditional rights deal, and need to purchase its own time on a network, has been a source of speculation, writes SBJ's Eric Prisbell. Will Staeger, LIV’s chief media officer, said that while that’s not uncommon for early-stage endeavors, they are optimistic that they will not need to create that type of structure.

• Both sides declared victory in the arbitration case Fox filed last April against Flutter, the majority owner of FanDuel. Flutter is also a partner of the Fox Bet operation in the U.S.

• MLS Commissioner Don Garber said in addition to San Diego and Las Vegas, Sacramento "hasn't gone away" as a potential expansion market, notes my colleague Alex Silverman. Per the latest Nielsen media market rankings, Sacramento is No. 20, San Diego is No. 30 and Vegas is No. 40. The biggest media market without an MLS team is Phoenix at No. 11.

• Fox Sports for the first time this college hoops season will carry regular primetime games in the sport.

• It’s the end of an era in ESPN’s PR shop, as Dave Nagle, director of communications, will retire Nov. 11 after 36 years in Bristol. We got to know Nagle over the years as he worked on ratings, motorsports, tennis, outdoors programming and the America’s Cup, which was his entry to the PR department. My colleague Austin Karp had this to say about Nagle: "Dave was among the first people I worked with when I started at SBJ 16 years ago, and his patience with a kid that couldn't even spell 'ratings' at the time was tremendously appreciated. Taking the time week in and week out to go over ESPN's numbers -- for years -- helped me get comfortable at the beginning of my career. Thank you, Dave."