The hold on the Clippers-Raptors trade around F Kawhi Leonard “isn’t seen as a sign that there is significant discipline coming for the Clippers and/or Leonard,” but “the potential for Leonard’s contract to be voided is the primary obstacle” to the deal going through, according to Murray, Koreen & Amick of THE ATHLETIC. Sources noted that the NBA “informed the Raptors before they agreed to the trade that the investigation could cause issues with any deal involving Leonard.” League sources said that the NBA made the decision “to ignore the public pressure that came from the trade being publicized and follow through on the stance that had been shared from the start.” Had the specifics of the Clippers-Raptors trade been kept quiet until the league’s Aspiration investigation was complete, the NBA “could have avoided the chaos that came with” the announcement of the deal. The league has “yet to publicly announce the findings of that investigation.” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged the ongoing probe before the start of the 2026 NBA Finals, saying, “We can’t be investigating forever.” The upcoming NBA BOG meetings next week is the “next potential opportunity for the NBA to close the investigation” (THE ATHLETIC, 7/9).
BEING UPFRONT: SPORTSNET.ca’s Michael Grange wrote chances are, Leonard will “still end up being” a Raptor again. A spokesperson for the NBA “made clear that the league was willing to approve the trade,” it is “just that they wanted to be upfront that the Raptors would have to deal with any fallout that hit Leonard.” Grange: “No one wants a situation where the trade is completed, Leonard is hit with severe penalties, the Raptors are left in the lurch and the league has egg on its face.” The league “doesn’t want teams trading for players without at least having alerted all involved to the potential risks” (SPORTSNET.ca, 7/9).
GUARD IS UP: THE RINGER’s Danny Chau noted the surprise is “not that the Raptors are protecting their business interests by waiting for clearance to finalize the trade, but instead that it took more than a week after the initial agreement (never mind the days of negotiations leading up to it or the months without an update about the progress of the investigation) to receive confirmation that the Raptors would be on the hook should any punishment fall upon Leonard himself.” Chau: “Was the state of the nearly yearlong investigation into the Clippers-Aspiration deal never broached in the negotiation process?” (THE RINGER, 7/9).
EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH: TSN.ca’s Josh Lewenberg noted even if Leonard is hit with a suspension of, say, 20-25 games, the “sense is that the Raptors would still sign off on the trade.” Given the uncertainty, the “prudent move is to wait out the process” -- although it is “unclear why this holdup wouldn’t have been covered in Toronto’s due diligence before agreeing to the trade.” But “barring the nightmare scenario where Leonard’s contract is rendered void, the deal is expected to go through.” It is “just a question of when.” Lewenberg wrote, “Fortunately, the opportunity cost of waiting this out is minimal.” If and when the trade goes through, the Raptors will be “hard capped at the first apron, a threshold they’re already nearing with at least one more regular roster spot to fill.” In other words, barring another trade, their offseason work “is all but done” (TSN.ca, 7/9).
INEVITABLE RISK: In Toronto, Bruce Arthur writes the Leonard deal “was never without risk.” Until the deal is done, “uncertainty remains.” If Silver does not issue heavy penalties to Clippers owner Steve Ballmer and the Clippers organization, he will “torch a significant amount of credibility.” The Raptors, meanwhile, “expect the deal to proceed, and seem to be betting a league which has voided one contract in its history over salary cap evasion” -- F Joe Smith in 2000 -- will “not go to war with the union and void Kawhi’s deal.” Arthur: “It’s a gamble, but welcome to the NBA” (TORONTO STAR, 7/10).
COMES DOWN TO SILVER: NBCSPORTS.com’s Kurt Helin wrote whenever the investigation ends, it “will be up to Silver to decide potential punishments, although the Clippers could (and likely would) appeal any punishment to a ‘system arbitrator’ -- a person selected by the NBA and players’ union -- who would review the evidence and determine if Silver’s punishments fit the offense.” The buzz in league circles is that the investigation “found enough that Silver will come down hard on Ballmer and the Clippers, but not nearly as much on Leonard.” But that is “all just speculation at this point” (NBCSPORTS.com, 7/9).
WRENCH IN THE PLANS: CBSSPORTS.com’s Sam Quinn wrote the delayed resolution here means that the Clippers, Raptors and the rest of the NBA “moved through this offseason assuming that Leonard would indeed play for Toronto next season.” If the investigation results in the Raptors not acquiring Leonard, it “throws a bit of a wrench into the rest of the league’s plans.” Most of the league’s cap space “has dried up,” for instance, so if Leonard’s contract were voided and he were to become a free agent, “very few teams would have the resources to pay him a salary at all commensurate with his production” (CBSSPORTS.com, 7/9).
