Kalshi
Launched in 2021 as an exchange licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi soon ran into resistance from federal regulators when it attempted to add prediction contracts around congressional elections. That led to a court battle that it won in time to offer markets on the last presidential election, a watershed moment that yielded more than $1 billion in volume. When Kalshi expanded into sports with the Super Bowl two months later, it struck oil. For the three months ending in mid-March, its sports volume approached $40 billion, representing about 80% of its business. It has raised about $2.5 billion in funding since last June, with a recent $1 billion round coming at a $22 billion valuation.
Co-founders: Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Age: Both 30
Origin story: Founded in 2019 by two early-career Citadel traders who met while at MIT, Kalshi was designed to be a first-of-its-kind regulated exchange that allowed investors to hedge against, or speculate on, a broad range of events likely to have economic consequences. They bet the company on that commitment to a regulated path, burning through early funding and enduring layoffs on their way to the federal court win that opened the door to a massive first-mover advantage and rocketing investor valuations.
U.S. sports deals: NHL, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bryson DeChambeau, Madison Square Garden
Dealmakers: Adam Barrick, head of sports partnerships; Sara Slane, head of corporate development
Last 3 months sports volume*: $38.77 billion
*Through June 14
Polymarket
Banned from accepting trades in the U.S. as part of a Commodity Futures Trading Commission settlement in January 2022, Polymarket returned this year with an appetite for sports and a vast venture capital war chest, boosted by a recent $600 million investment from the operators of the New York Stock Exchange. Another $400 million round is underway, reportedly pegged to a $15 billion valuation.
Founder: Shayne Coplan
Age: 28
Origin story: Raised on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Coplan dropped out of NYU’s computer science program during his freshman year to pursue projects around cryptocurrency, which he first purchased while in high school. Smitten by the concept of prediction markets, he founded blockchain-based Polymarket from his apartment in June 2020. Though driven offshore by U.S. regulators in 2022, Polymarket caught fire in the run-up to the 2024 presidential elections. It resumed business in the U.S. after the CFTC rescinded its ban in November.
U.S. sports deals: MLB, NHL, MLS, UFC
Dealmaker: Ari Borod, president of sports business development
Last 3 months sports volume*: $12.69 billion
*Through June 14
